IL-10 Roundup

perhaps the most frequent question about the race for the democratic nomination for congress in the 10th congressional district — what some consider to be “the biggest congressional race next year in Illinois” — is why is there a primary?  lynn sweet predicts:

The contest will be one of the most expensive in the nation. Third quarter fund-raising reports gives Seals $498,872 cash on hand; Footlik, making his first run for office, has a $414,018 warchest. The winner faces Kirk, who has stockpiled $1.5 million and has no primary opponent.

“The issue here,” carol marin says, “is whether the battle between Seals and Footlik will splinter Jewish voters, sap each campaign of cash and strength in the primary, and give Kirk the advantage he needs to capture a fifth term.”

while these sentiments may continue to be frequently voiced about this race, it isn’t an interesting lens through which to view the race because there is a primary.  instead, i find it more interesting to note that this election really is a classic battle between two schools of thought: the “perfect candidate” model — behind which illinois machine democrats are a prime driving force — and the grassroots model.

jay footlik presents himself to the voters in the mold of the “perfect candidate” for the 10th: he’s jewish, he’s connected to democratic royalty, he has a strong connection to israel, and he promises to peal off jewish supporters of mark kirk.  according to this analysis, a jewish democrat is the only candidate who can defeat mark kirk because they are the only opponent who can neutralize the advantage kirk has (or is perceived to have) with regard to the issue of israel.  some estimate that up to 20% of the 10th is jewish.

the problem with this proposition is that every candidate who ran against mark kirk before dan seals was a jewish democrat — and they all lost.  and it ignores the fact that, regardless of who runs, kirk will make an issue out of his strong support of israel and use it as a wedge issue.  regardless of who runs.

the footlik campaign has also tried to draw the contrast that jay has more experience in government than his democratic opponent.  this might be a strong contrast if mark kirk didn’t have more experience in government than jay footlik.  if experience is the frame under which this campaign is fought, kirk wins.  it is kirk’s experience as (former congressman) john porter’s chief of staff, kirk’s predecessor, that has kept him in office.  porter was, and continues to be, popular among the voters of the 10th, and kirk has won by brandishing his close connection to porter.

the other thing that footlik seems to be hanging his hat on is, “dan seals is likeable, but he didn’t get it done last time.”  since footlik lived in d.c. in 2006, he is aware of the national trend (well, sorta) of the blue wave in 2006 (at least in new york, pennsylvania, ohio, florida, indiana, arizona, new hampshire, connecticutt, iowa and minnesota).  and because he had no ties to the il-10th in 2006, he’s clearly unaware that topinka (republican gubernatorial candidate) and peraica (republican cook county president candidate) won in the district.  not exactly a good year — let alone great year — for democrats in the 10th.  but that’s what happens when you parachute into the state, even if you are perceived (by some) as the perfect candidate for the district.

given the fact that footlik is new to the district, he’s had to start his media campaign early.  he’s already mailed twice into the district (local republican blog team america has the mailers: first and second).  footlik has also made two cable buys in at least some areas of the 10th, value and square.  footlik has been meeting with influentials in the 10th privately, but has skipped significant local political events.

footlik’s almost invisible campaign contrasts significantly with the grassroots-driven, netroots favored campaign of dan seals.  named a future leader for yearlykos, supported nationally by the major blogs through their blue majority project, as well as by local bloggers.  seals benefits significantly from the commitment made by the grassroots, significantly through the tenth dems — the group that helped recruit him to run for congress in the tenth — to turn the tenth blue.  an innovative grassroots organization, lead by former congressional candidate lauren beth gash, the tenth dems has taken the lead in identifying and training local democratic activists, many (if not most) who participate in seals’ campaign.  add to that the support of the local democratic infrastructure, whether jan schakowsky to the south or melissa bean to the north and west and senators obama and durbin, as well as the township democratic organizations, and you can see why the seals campaign is building a strong organization capable of winning in this highly competitive swing district.

often compared to barack obama by voters and contributors, seals has offered a comprehensive vision for change in the tenth.  his campaign has systematically gone about and identified its weaknesses from 2006 and set about to correct them.  they are creating a rather extensive precinct organization and providing advanced training for their precinct captains.  one result of this approach can be found in the 4,416 signatures they collected on seals’ nominating petitions.  the seals campaign promises an even more aggressive voter outreach effort than implemented in 2006.

the seals campaign combines this grassroots approach with traditional campaigning.  they’ve conducted a benchmark poll for the primary, giving seals “a commanding lead:”

Seals leads Footlik 58 percent to 6 percent in the poll, which surveyed 404 likely primary voters. It also shows Seals with a 69-24 advantage in name recognition.

rather extensive voter contact and media programs are planned, incorporating the results of that poll.  

while jay footlik sports one endorsement so far, dan seals has garnered every democratic official in the tenth, as well as former 10th congressman abner mikva, congresswoman schakowsky and  congressman jim clyburn.  add to that the union powerhouses, seiu and afscme, illinois progressive leader citizen action-illinois and the two democratic township organizations which have endorsed so far, and you get an idea of seals’ strength in the primary.

this strength has been borne out by the results of the two candidates’ fundraising in the district.  footlik has motivated 16 locals to contribute to his campaign, getting about 6% of his money from the 10th.  seals, otoh, got more than 80% locally.  seals’ fundraising is so impressive, he’s on the top ten list of non-incumbents running this time.  seals’ support is so strong locally that we’ve seen reports of petition collectors pretending to be passing for seals in order to get signatures for footlik.  

you can really see the difference on the ground.  in contrast to reports of paid circulators for footlik, seals had 76 volunteer petition circulators who collected his 4,416 signatures.  seals is conducting numerous grassroots events out of their lake cook plaza office (2nd fl professional offices, 405 lake cook road; within walking distance to lake cook metra Station), including field trainings (two thus far), phone banking, canvassing and several different types of outreach events (house parties, coffees, meet & greets).  over 100 people attended a seals event last wednesday night at pinstripes in northbrook.  they are continuing to phone bank nightly, and have canvassing scheduled every saturday (meet at office at 12:00 p.m.), as well as outreach events throughout the district.  ongoing events are listed on the seals calendar.

i made repeated efforts to reach the footlik campaign to ask these same questions (in fact, i’ll pose the questions i asked of all the congressional campaigns in the comments), but they never got back to me.  that is why this diary, planned for friday, wasn’t posted until now.  even the first question (do you have a campaign headquarters and where) couldn’t be answered by the person who answered the phone.  you may have observed that footlik’s campaign office address isn’t listed on their website, but this is in keeping with the secretive nature of their whole campaign.  (i had told jay that i would be doing this series at yearlykos and he said they were eager to participate.)

there is an obvious answer to the most frequent question, which was posed in the opening paragraph.  the reason that there’s a primary is that this seat is ready to turn blue.  it’s got a pvi of 3.5, and the biggest difference between 2008 and 2006 is that there will be a popular democrat running for president — perhaps even barack obama, who endorsed seals in 2006.  illinoisians know how unpopular governor blagojevich was (and is), and the circumstances surrounding the elevation of todd stroger as the democratic candidate for cook county board president won’t be repeated.

but it’s more than that.  in 2006, seals expected to win the parts of the 10th in cook county — but didn’t.  the expected edge in new trier never appeared, minority voting in waukegan and north chicago was suppressed, and the western half of the 10th congressional district went decidedly for kirk.  dan seals and his campaign is not only battle hardened, but understands the complexities of the tenth gained by experience in an entire election cycle.  only seals has seen kirk’s 72-hour project (really, final week push) that mobilized more volunteers than had been seen on kirk’s behalf before.  but the biggest difference between 2006 and 2008 is that there was still doubt that dan could win in 2006, but there’s real confidence that if they can minimize their weaknesses, dan seals can beat mark kirk in 2008.

the movement of the middle east towards peace can only help.  if israel does not feel threatened, dan seals is the biggest beneficiary.  kirk’s voicing of a mortal threat to israel to peel away jewish democrats from the democratic candidate (regardless of who it is) will be senseless if their no perception of mortal threat exists.  the dynamics of the 10th in 2008 is dramatically different than in 2006, and these favor dan seals…